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“You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em
Know when to fold ‘em
Know when to walk away
know when to run
You never count your money
When you’re sittin’ at the table
There’ll be time enough for countin’
When the dealin’s done”
Those are the words from the refrain of Kenny Rogers’ song “The Gambler” which was a smash hit in the late ‘70s -early ‘80s. It was actually the theme song Rogers wrote and recorded for a movie of the same name.
I remember my sister had the soundtrack on a vinyl record and it was a staple in our house for many years when I was growing up. We also enjoyed watching the movie whenever it was aired on TV. (The days before VCRs……….VCRs were what we had before DVDs, LOL)
What does all that have to do with Newt Gingrich? Well, I think at this point Newt would be wise to heed the advice of those lyrics. Newt certainly never learned the lesson that “You never count your money when you’re sittin’ at the table; there’ll be time enough for countin’ when the dealin’s done.” It wasn’t so long ago when Newt boldly declared in an ABC interview that “I am going to be the nominee” just prior to the Iowa caucus.
Many of us found Newt’s statement to be quite presumptuous and rather obnoxious at the time. It seems now that, not only did he count his money too early, he did it well before a single hand had been played or vote had been counted.
Now 9 states have voted and we are headed into Super Tuesday in about three weeks.
Of those 9 states Newt has lost 8 out of 9.
He has lost 6 in a row.
Newt has finished dead last in 2 of the last 4 states, didn’t manage to be on the ballot in another, and was only able to muster a 13% finish in Colorado to Ron Paul’s 12% for 3rd place, making it the best finish he had in the last 4 states.
He has a losing win/loss record with every other candidate:
Newt 1 Romney 8
Newt 3 Santorum 6
Newt 4 Paul 5
Every other candidate has beaten Newt more times than he has beaten them.
Newt’s one shining moment so far was his big win in SC on Jan 21st, but he went on to throw away all the momentum gained by the SC win. He spouted out big ideas of building a colony on the moon by the end of his first term and went totally bust in Florida a few days later. If I am not mistaken, he is the first ever GOP candidate to win SC and then lose Florida.
Next Newt proceeded to harvest from his vineyard of sour grapes as he gave a very whiny 22 minute press conference where he blamed everyone but himself for his woes after badly losing in Nevada. He even blamed the media for him losing a debate in Florida.
Newt is also facing a severe money flow problem. Before his last 4 losses, Newt was already $600,000 in campaign debt. With those losses rapidly adding up, he has had to take at least 3 valuable campaign days off to go to California and scrounge around for donations. Newt’s campaign has been so low on money that it has not run any commercials since Florida.
After Santorum’s clean sweep of 3 states in a day, followed by him raising no less than $3 million the following 3 days, Santorum is exploding in basically every state, even California and nationally while Newt is rapidly fading. Neither Santorum or Newt did any campaigning in Maine but Santorum still garnered 17% of the vote while Newt only got 6%.
Now up until this point in the race, I have never counted anyone out because there has been plenty opportunity for a “rags to riches” type of surge from any of the candidates. But that hour has passed. Newt has only surged when he was able to dominate the debates, but there are no debates in the near future. Santorum has surged into a double digit lead in Romney’s home state of Michigan, the next state to vote, while Newt is in last place at only 10%. Newt is even in trouble in his home state of Georgia where Santorum is closing in on him fast. We are well into the primary process and Newt has no way of regaining any momentum between now and Super Tuesday.
The other thing that makes it impossible for Newt to get anywhere is that his approval index is consistently at a major deficit and is currently at 38/47. Newt is losing to Obama by at least 8 points in national polls. Newt was calling for Santorum to drop out of the race before the Florida primary and “consolidate the conservative vote” by endorsing him. Now Santorum has won 4 times as many states as Newt and is the clear front runner in all the polls, yet for some reason Newt will not follow his own standard and get out of the race gracefully making an easier path for Santorum to beat Romney.
In the end, I don’t think it will matter very much whether Newt steps out or remains in the race because, even with Newt still in the race, Santorum is beating Romney. But it would allow Newt’s few remaining supporters to get behind Santorum and assure an easy victory over Romney.
So with no realistic path forward for Newt Gingrich, it seems like an exercise in futility for him to continue in this race. Perhaps it’s not only time for him to “fold ‘em”, it’s time for him “to walk away” and let the contenders “run.”
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The post Time to “know when to fold ‘em” Newt appeared first on The South Carolina Conservative.